The US intelligence community stated on Thursday that India was more likely than ever to use military force to retaliate against any provocation from Pakistan under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence noted rising hostilities between India and its two neighbours, Pakistan and China, in its yearly threat assessment report.
“Pakistan backs anti-India terrorist organisations”
The paper, which was presented to the US Congress, noted that the possibility of an escalating cycle between the two nuclear-armed powers makes conflicts between India and Pakistan particularly concerning.
“After the renewal of the cease-fire along the Line of Control by both sides in the early months of 2021, New Delhi and Islamabad are likely inclined to maintain the current calm in their relationship. However, Pakistan has a long history of funding extremist organisations opposed to India, and under PM Modi’s leadership, India is more likely than ever to retaliate militarily against Pakistani provocations “It read.
A militant strike in India or violent unrest in Kashmir were mentioned as potential flashpoints by the intelligence community.
‘Conflict between China and India may call for US action’
The report also observed that although India and China had bilateral border talks and settled certain outstanding issues, their relations remained tense following the Galwan incident.
India has insisted that peace in the border regions is a prerequisite for normalising relations with China.
The report stated that “the increased military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US persons and interests, and calls for US intervention,” and that “the potential to escalate swiftly” has been shown by previous standoffs.